Análisis del impacto de un shock climático sobre la morosidad en la cartera de créditos bancarios otorgados al sector agrícola en el Paraguay. Período 2002-2015

Abstract

The paper analyzes the impact of a climate shock on delinquency in the portfolio of bank loans granted to the agricultural sector in Paraguay. Paraguay has a small and open economy, so it had a high volatility in its growth, much of this volatility is explained by its dependent income from the agricultural sector, which makes it a country vulnerable to climate change. For the analysis of the research work, the econometric models of long-term cointegration are used, and the imbalance correction model, where the dummy variable is incorporated to represent the climate shock. According to the results, the growth of loans to the agricultural sector generally does not imply a variation of the sector's delinquency, however, in the long-term model there is a significant relationship between the climate shock and the delinquency in the agricultural sector. In the short term, both the GDP of the agricultural sector and the active rate in national currency are not related to delinquency, but if it can be observed in the imbalance correction model that there are other factors that are in the error of the regression exogenously and that is related to late payment.